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BathMaineWeather.com - Tropical Weather - Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 281129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers in the central tropical Atlantic have
decreased since yesterday.  Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while
the system moves slowly westward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:30:45 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281129
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hilary, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Irwin, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
    ...HILARY MOVING OVER COOLER WATER... ...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Hilary was located near 19.2, -118.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Hilary

  • Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...HILARY MOVING OVER COOLER WATER... ...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 118.4W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 118.4 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 123.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 29
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Cloud tops near the center of Hilary continue to warm this morning, and a consensus of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggests a decreased initial intensity of 55 kt. An AMSR pass at 0913 UTC showed a band of deep convection spiraling into the center. There is also a pronounced dry slot, indicative of the drier environment that the cyclone is moving into. Hilary is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm this morning, so the window for any reintensification is closing quickly, despite the insistence of the HWRF and GFS which both show a hurricane in 24 hours. Instead, the official forecast continues to follow the statistical models, which depict steady weakening until Hilary becomes a remnant low. The intensity forecast is a little lower than indicated in the previous advisory based on the lower initial intensity, but no significant changes have been made. The low-level center of the tropical storm was briefly visible this morning, and the initial motion is a fairly confident 305/7. There has been a significant shift in the guidance toward the north for this advisory, especially the GFS and the GFS-based hurricane models. The 06Z GFS in particular has shifted nearly 500 nm to the northeast at day 5 and no longer shows any significant interaction between Irwin and Hilary. The 00Z ECMWF also shifted a little north, but not nearly to the same extent. Interaction between the two cyclones, and the eventual absorption of Irwin by Hilary, is still expected for now, as shown by the UKMET and ECMWF. Based on the changes in the guidance, the official forecast has been shifted north, but still lies well south of the multi-model consensus aids. It does, however, fall near the middle of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 19.2N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.9N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.8N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 24.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.8N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 26.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 281436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 75 15(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 50 16 20(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 120W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
    Tropical Storm Hilary 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 14:42:16 GMT

    Tropical Storm Hilary 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:23:03 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
    ...IRWIN AIN'T GOING ANYWHERE SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Irwin was located near 14.8, -125.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Irwin

  • Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 25
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...IRWIN AIN'T GOING ANYWHERE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 125.3W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 125.3 West. Irwin is nearly stationary, and little motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so. A slow northward motion should begin late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 25
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 281436 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.2N 125.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 25
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281437 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Irwin's structure has not changed significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection near the center has been blossoming intermittently. Dvorak T-numbers have also been fluctuating, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 50 kt. SHIPS model data indicate some shear over the cyclone but not strong enough to disrupt the cloud pattern. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for only small fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to reach cooler waters and weakening should begin. This process will continue until Irwin and Hilary merge in about 96 hours or sooner. Irwin is embedded in light steering currents, and the cyclone has barely moved during the past few hours. Little motion is anticipated today or early Saturday, but after that time, Irwin should be steered northward and northwestward by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary. Track guidance is in good agreement that little motion will occur during the next day or so. There is a big difference in both direction and speed among models beyond 3 days with the northernmost GFS and the southernmost ECMWF marking the edges of the broad guidance envelope. However, by then, Irwin and Hilary should have already merged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.8N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.2N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z...Merge with Hilary $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 281436 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 26 14(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 125W 64 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
    Tropical Storm Irwin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 14:41:10 GMT

    Tropical Storm Irwin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:30:17 GMT ]]>



Fast Weather Facts and Folklore

AMAZING WEATHER FACT - Average annual temperature in Maine’s Allagash region is 36°F, only 4° above freezing.