A major winter storm will affect Maine on Saturday January 2nd and Sunday January 3rd, 2010. A low pressure system east of the Gulf of Maine will intensify this weekend and back into the gulf tonight. The low pressure will advance westward into the gulf from a position just south of Nova Scotia. This is a rare occurrence for New England. Normally, a low pressure system that’s east of the gulf will continue in a north to northeast fashion and only brush Maine with light snowfall.

Expect snow to intensify throughout the day today and become very heavy overnight with near blizzard conditions. High winds, blowing and drifting snow and coastal flooding during high tides are expected. Travel will be nearly impossible overnight and tomorrow morning with snow-packed roadways and whiteout conditions. Power outages are possible as trees and limbs may be downed due to the high winds.

Snowfall accumulations will depend on the exact track of the low pressure system. This storm has been hard for forecasters to predict exactly where the storm will track.

The NAM forecast model seems to be the most consistent. Here is a graphic from the NAM model for total snowfall.

NAM snowfall total - Northeast US

Here is a graphic from the  GFS forecast model for total snowfall.

GFS snowfall total - Northeast US

As you can see, there are some differences. Which model verifies is unknown at this time but both give Maine a substantial snowfall. Coupled with high winds and near blizzard conditions, the storm needs to be closely monitored.

My predictions for the storm are as follows. I used a blend of both the NAM and GFS models. (Warning! This is not an official forecast! For official forecasts, stay tuned with the NWS and your local TV station.) These snowfall accumulations are total from 12:00 a.m. Saturday January 2nd through 7:00 a.m. Monday January 4th, 2010.

• Sagadahoc,Lincoln and Kennebec Counties: 10″ – 16″
• Waldo and Knox Counties: 12″ – 18″
• Cumberland and Androscoggin Counties: 8″ to 14″

Follow the storm at BathMaineWeather.com by following the links in the sidebar on the left side of this page. Live weather conditons, radar. weather cam, forecasts, tides and more.

For official forecasts and warnings, stayed tuned to your local TV stations and the NWS.

The upcoming storm is a hard one for forecasters to predict what it is going to do this coming New Years weekend. Forecast models have been all over the place, with the European models being the most consistent. The storm looks to be long duration, with heavy snow, high winds and coastal flooding from Friday through Sunday. While some of the models clobber Maine with heavy snow, other models just give us a glancing blow.

The following graphic is from AccuWeather.com and depicts their forecast as of 2:00 p.m. today.

Blizzard for Maine? | From Accuweather.com

Forecasters may have a better handle on this winter storm when future forecast models come out later tonight and tomorrow morning. The following graphic depicts the 12z GFS 120 hour snow total for Maine and surrounding areas. Realize that this is not set in stone, it is just what one of the many forecast models is forecasting.

12z GFS 120 hour Snowtotal

This storm bears watching! Stay tuned to your local TV station and/or the NWS for further updates.